Research Article
Growth, Instability and Trend Analysis of Rice Production Indicators in Nigeria
PurposeThe research looked at the trends and decomposition of milled rice production indicators in Nigeria.Research MethodIt relied on secondary time-series data on rice output, yield, and cultivated area obtained from the FAOSTAT database. The data ranged from the 1960/61 to the 2019/20 production cycle. Descriptive statistics, compound annual growth rate (CAGR), decomposition analysis, and Instability Index (II) were used to analyze the data.FindingsThe highest yield performance (2.38 tonnes/ha) occurred between 1978 and 1992. The cultivated area increased steadily during the study period. The study found that the time trend significantly influenced changes in harvested area, yield, and rice production at 1%, with CAGR values of 15%, 1%, and 16% between 1960-61 and 2019-20, indicating some weaknesses in Nigeria's rice yield during this period. According to the decomposition analysis (1961-2020), the increased rice harvested area effect was the primary source of growth during the period. The area effect on rice production in Nigeria was found to be 58%, compared to 2% for the yield effect and 40% for the interaction, implying that increased output in Nigeria is still largely dependent on cultivated area expansion. During the study period, yield performance was the most volatile, with an instability index of 3.17%, while milled rice production and the area under rice cultivation had instability indexes of 0.94% and 0.82%, respectively.Research LimitationsThe major limitation is the lack of current data on rice production indicators up to 2022.Originality/ValueIt employs decomposition techniques to assess the contributions of yield and cultivated area to rice output in Nigeria, and the Cuddy Della Valle Index to determine the volatility of rice production indicators.
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